On April 2, local time, the United States announced a reciprocal tariff policy, subsequently proposing that products with over 20% U.S. value could be exempted. According to the latest research by TrendForce, due to the impact of the new round of U.S. tariff policies, the 2025 shipment forecasts for end markets such as AI servers, servers, smartphones, and laptops have been revised downward.
| 2025 YoY | AI Server | Server | Smartphone | Notebook | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Previous Forecast | 28.3% | 6.9% | 1.5% | 5.0% | There is no clear tariff rate limit |
| Base Case | 24.5% | 5.4% | 0.0% | 3.0% | Reflects the decline in demand caused by tariffs |
| Worst Case | 18.0% | 2.0% | -5.0% | 2.0% | Reflects the extension of the tariff scope and the strict implementation of territoriality, resulting in further downward adjustment of demand |
In the first quarter of 2025, shipments of servers, smartphones, and laptops exceeded expectations, mainly because industry players advanced shipments in response to the tariffs. TrendForce noted that the supply chain is still exploring how to absorb the increased production costs caused by tariffs. Whether U.S. value will be defined and proven based on brand origin or place of manufacture has become a key point of observation.
TrendForce proposed two downgraded forecast scenarios: the base case assumes that the 20% U.S. value is brand-based, i.e., defined by the country of the brand owner, making it easier for U.S. brands to provide proof and gain exemption for whole systems or devices. The worst-case scenario anticipates that the tariff conflict will escalate as countries implement countermeasures, and U.S. value will be strictly calculated based on production location, increasing the likelihood of market adjustments.
In the AI server market, under the base case scenario, the U.S. value rule could partially offset tariff impacts. Additionally, Mexico is not included in the tariff increase, so ODM system manufacturers can still ship products through Mexico to U.S. clients and obtain tax exemption under the USMCA agreement. However, the market still faces multiple variables, such as OEMs or CSPs becoming more conservative under unstable conditions, potentially delaying actual purchases. As a result, the annual growth rate of AI server shipments for 2025 has been slightly revised down to 24.5%.
If follow-up retaliatory tariffs from other countries result in broader trade barriers, leading to global inflation or weakened consumer power, CSPs and OEMs may further slow the deployment of AI server infrastructure, reducing the annual shipment growth rate to around 18%.
For servers, the new U.S. tariff policy is expected to tighten capital expenditures by local companies. IT equipment procurement budgets will turn more conservative in the second half of 2025, and the annual server shipment growth rate will be slightly revised down to 5.4%. Under the worst-case scenario, if tariffs expand from consumer electronics and servers to semiconductors and core computing components, the global supply chain may face greater cost pressures and a period of investment hesitation, with the annual server shipment growth potentially converging to 2%.
TrendForce pointed out that if the 20% U.S. value rule is interpreted more leniently, mid-to-high-end smartphones may qualify for exemption, but brands focusing on low-end or entry-level models may not avoid tariff impacts. Consumer confidence in the economic outlook is weak, and consumption downgrading will become more evident. In the base case, the annual production growth of smartphones in 2025 will be revised down to remain flat compared to the previous year. If the tariff conflict further weakens global economic performance, the smartphone market will face greater challenges, and production may decline by 5% year-on-year.
PC OEMs have already begun advancing shipments to the U.S. starting from Q4 2024 to mitigate potential tariff impacts. After the new rules were announced on April 2, U.S. brands with mature assembly bases in Southeast Asia continued shipments, while non-U.S. brands are holding off to observe policy changes. The resulting market uncertainty is expected to constrain global demand for consumer electronics and business device replacements. In the base case, the 2025 laptop ODM shipment growth rate has been revised down to 3%; if the situation worsens toward the pessimistic scenario, the growth rate will further shrink to 2%.
Source: TrendForce
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