The PC industry has long been criticized for its incremental “toothpaste-squeeze” updates, but the advent of the AI PC era may end this trend.
Many analysts suggest that the PC industry, often considered a “sunset industry,” might be revitalized. Integrating specialized AI acceleration hardware into personal computers could lead to significant innovations in efficiency, productivity, collaboration, and creativity, acting “like your personal assistant.”
01
AI PCs have high configuration requirements.
What constitutes an AI PC? Independent cutting-edge technology research institution Incomplete Research recently released a report stating that an AI PC must meet five key characteristics, including embedded personal large models and standard local hybrid AI computing power.
In simpler terms, a PC must have at least 16GB of memory; the model parameters must be 7 billion; and the AI computing power should reach 40 TOPS (1 TOPS means the processor can perform a trillion operations per second).
However, there is no authoritative definition for AI PCs yet. A mainstream view is whether the computer is equipped with a Neural Processing Unit (NPU). Some reports indicate that local AI power refers to the total AI computing power of CPU+NPU+GPU, not just the power provided by NPU alone. Some PC manufacturers believe that AI PCs must have a dedicated physical button for “one-key AI.”
Gao Yu, the General Manager of Intel China’s technical department, recently stated that the entry-level standard for future AI PCs will be 32GB of memory, and the current 16GB memory will be phased out, with 64GB PCs starting to ship next year. AI PCs also have very high requirements for SSD performance and capacity.
Lisa Su, Chairman and CEO of AMD, also mentioned that AI PCs should be a combination of CPU, GPU, and NPU, especially considering some models can run on any of these components.
Microsoft recently launched two AI PCs, equipped with the latest generation processors and a neural processing unit, the core “brain” for accelerating AI tasks.
Why include an NPU? An IDC report pointed out that on a general computing platform, a CPU-centric computing structure struggles to meet the parallel computational demands of AI neural networks and lacks cost-effectiveness.
02
Targeting AI professionals first
Does the arrival of AI PCs mean current computers are obsolete? Should average consumers replace their computers?
Xiang Ligang, a telecommunications industry observer, in an interview with China News Finance, mentioned that AI PCs will initially target professionals. Average consumers do not need to follow the trend and replace their machines. AI PCs will not immediately possess absolute capabilities that previous computers lacked but will enhance intelligent capabilities. Future computers will continually improve these abilities.
To date, AI PC features include but are not limited to applicability across all computer programs, natural language fuzzy search, context understanding, image editing, long-text generation, real-time translation, one-click AI summoning, automatic camera framing, and AI-generated images and videos, making the user experience akin to having a “secretary.”
Incomplete Research’s report also stated that AI knowledge workers would be early adopters of AI PCs, and once users experience AI PCs, they won’t revert to the previous generation. This trend has already occurred once with smartphones replacing feature phones.
Predictions on AI PC shipments also provide insight into the PC industry’s direction. Canalys’s latest forecast shows that in 2024, global AI PC shipments will reach 48 million units, accounting for 18% of total personal computer shipments. This is just the beginning of the market transition, with AI PC shipments expected to exceed 100 million units by 2025, accounting for 40% of total PC shipments.
“By 2028, AI PC shipments will reach 205 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of 44% from 2024 to 2028,” Canalys data shows.
03
Why PCs?
For a long time, PC industry updates focused on competing over graphics cards and screens, along with minor CPU improvements, leading to widespread criticism and even labeling it a “sunset industry.” Thus, the market questions why PCs were chosen as the vehicle for AI applications.
Some analysts believe that the arrival of AI PCs may differ from previous updates and could serve as an industry “watershed.” Wang Chuandong, Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer of Lenovo Group in China, recently stated that the explosive growth of AI technology could transform computers into true personal assistants, capable of thinking like the human brain, redefining the value of PCs.
“AI PCs have the strongest terminal computing power, extensive local storage, and rich interactive features, making them an excellent productivity platform. Therefore, AI PCs will become the preferred terminal for AI democratization,” said Wang Chuandong.
Xiang Ligang told China News Finance that AI PCs currently equipped with GPUs and NPUs offer better performance in voice recognition and graphic processing, incorporating AI capabilities. All computers will gradually integrate more robust AI capabilities, making their performance in AI terminals promising.
The IDC report also believes that PCs are the strongest personal computing platforms to date, balancing powerful computing capabilities with portability. The combination of AI personal large models with PCs is a natural fit. PCs are most likely to become the preferred terminal for AI democratization, and AI will be the key technology driver for the third major upgrade of PCs.
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