After a small price increase caused by traders looking for goods and manufacturers controlling supply in the earlier period, the spot market returned to calm last week, with a steady correction overall.
However, it should be noted that there is less than a week until the official arrival of 2025, which means the market will soon enter the traditional Chinese New Year stocking up period.
In the view of SZYUNZE’s editor, the SSD market during the Chinese New Year period is still worth looking forward to.
As is well known, since August 2023, NAND Flash prices have been rising overall, continuing into the first quarter of this year. After nearly doubling in price, the market began to correct, and the prices of low-capacity SATA 128G/256G products have basically fallen below previous low levels.
Although there is still some gap between mainstream capacities and the original manufacturer GoodDie Wafer, from this week, the original manufacturers have started raising the price of the 32GB wafer from $1.4 to $1.45.
According to information from upstream traders, the current chip prices are stable, but actual demand still needs to pick up, and quotes are beginning to gradually rise.
As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches and with fewer working days, there may be supply shortages in the market. Therefore, it is advised to extend the purchasing cycle and moderately increase inventory while maintaining reasonable turnover.
In terms of news, recent developments in the industry may serve as a reference for next year’s market trend.
Firstly, in the face of weak market demand and continuous price decline pressure, Micron announced a 10% reduction in NAND wafer production.
Secondly, the moves of the two major domestic manufacturers have shocked the industry. They first began mass production of DDR5, which has already appeared in products sold by domestic module manufacturers, and then launched the first domestic PCIe 5.0 SSD flagship product.
Especially the former, with technological advancements, domestic manufacturers are expected to significantly increase their market share in the global DRAM market. However, this may put significant pressure on DRAM prices and could be a major variable in the market next year.
According to institutional forecasts, the AI wave in 2025 will continue, driving the demand for HBM, large-capacity SSDs, and QLC NAND, with more capital expenditures flowing into DRAM, especially HBM.
Devices with true edge AI capabilities are expected to be launched by the end of 2025, but it will be 2026 before they significantly impact the memory market.
In summary, the storage market’s division between the AI application boom and the cooling of consumer terminals will continue for some time, while the rise of domestic manufacturers adds uncertainty to the storage market next year.
1. SSD Solid State Drive Market
With less than a week until the New Year of 2025, the market is about to enter the traditional Chinese New Year stocking up period, and the SSD market during this period is worth looking forward to.
As is well known, NAND Flash prices rose from August 2023 to the first quarter of this year, nearly doubling before correcting. The prices of low-capacity SATA 128G/256G products have mostly fallen below previous low levels.
Last week, the original manufacturers raised the price of 32GB wafers, and current chip prices are stable, with quotes gradually rising. As the Chinese New Year approaches, with fewer working days and various shortages emerging, it is advised to look at longer cycles while maintaining reasonable turnover and moderately increasing inventory.
Last week’s NVME 3.0 pricing shows a 1%-2% increase for 480G and 2TB capacities, while other capacities have decreased by 1%-2%.
Last week’s NVME 4.0 pricing shows a downward trend across all capacities, with a price drop of around 1%-2%.
Last week’s SATA 3.0 market pricing shows a 1% drop for the 960G capacity, while other capacities remain unchanged.
2. DRAM Memory Market
Last week, the DRAM market experienced a decline in demand, and prices slightly dropped. It is expected that prices will likely continue to decline before the Chinese New Year, and it is important to closely monitor market developments.
Last week’s memory OEM market pricing for the D4 segment shows that, except for the 4GB capacity, other capacities are experiencing a downward trend, with a price drop in the range of 2%-3%.
For the D3 segment, all capacities remain unchanged.
3. NAND FLASH Chip Market
Last week, FLASH wafer contract prices remained stable, with increased inquiries, though actual transactions are yet to pick up. As the Chinese New Year stocking up period begins, the market is expected to gradually improve in the future.
Low-priced INK DIE sources are still scarce, with tight control on supply. Traders are entering the market, and the recent trend is becoming clearer. Low-priced second-hand chips remain in short supply, which is worth monitoring. With more holidays approaching, it is advisable to moderately increase inventory during operations.
4. USB 2.0/USB 3.0/TF Card Market
Last week, the USB market showed an overall steady correction trend, with average demand. There was no large supply of chips, and demand remained weak. The TF card market continued its correction trend, with some channel vendors starting to cash out and sell at low prices. There is limited spot supply before the Chinese New Year, and the focus remains on turnover.
Last week’s PCBA pricing shows that, except for the 32GB-64GB capacities, which dropped by about 1%, other capacities remained unchanged.
Last week’s UDP pricing shows that, except for the 16GB-64GB capacities, which dropped by about 1%, other capacities remained unchanged.
Last week’s USB 3.0 pricing shows that, except for the 32GB-64GB capacities, which dropped by about 1%, other capacities remained unchanged.
Last week’s TF card pricing shows that, except for the 32GB-128GB capacities, which dropped by about 1%-2%, other capacities remained unchanged.
This week’s market strategy: reasonable turnover with appropriate inventory.
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