In 2007, Steve Jobs launched the first generation of the iPhone, and from then on, the entire mobile phone industry entered the era of smartphones. Later, Apple introduced the App Store, marking the beginning of the smartphone’s entry into the mobile internet era.
From 2007 to now, it’s been 17 years. During these 17 years, some companies have collapsed while others have risen, creating the stable landscape of today’s smartphone market. The rankings have remained largely unchanged for many years.
It can be said that moving forward, the structure of the mobile phone market will largely remain unchanged, with little variation in rankings or sales.
The entire mobile phone industry has now entered an era of low innovation and high profits. You may argue that if there is no innovation, how can there be high profits? But the truth is, this is indeed the case.
Let’s first talk about innovation. In recent years, there have been some buzzwords, such as foldable screens, AI phones, and improved cameras, but these so-called innovations are mostly just upgrades in appearance or routine enhancements. Compared to the early innovations in phones, they don’t really count as true innovation.
Think back to earlier years when each phone launch event was full of highlights, features to talk about, and various comparisons that showcased how much better their phones were than competitors’. These were designed to attract attention and drive purchases. But in recent years? People are increasingly unwilling to upgrade their phones because they realize that year after year, there is little difference—it’s just squeezing the toothpaste tube, changing the shell, or introducing new colors. Everything is predictable, with little to surprise anyone.
If you don’t believe it, just compare. Whether it’s Apple or other brands, has anything changed in the past few years? Even the appearance hasn’t changed. As for features? It’s just chip upgrades, better cameras, and everything else? No change, pretty much the same.
But even though there’s no innovation, prices cannot be lowered—they must go up. Especially in the past five years, whether it’s Apple or domestic brands, prices have increased by at least 25% compared to five years ago.
According to data tracked by research institutions, the average price of phones in the domestic market has increased from 2,956 yuan in 2020 to 3,726 yuan in 2024.
Many may not accept that prices have risen, but in fact, from 2020 to 2024, many consumer goods have actually decreased in price, such as home appliances and even cars. Even real estate has dropped back to 2020 levels in many areas by 2024. Yet, phone prices have continuously risen. Is this reasonable?
If you look at the financials of phone manufacturers, you’ll find that their gross profit margins and profits have been steadily increasing.
After all, phone innovation has plateaued, and features have reached their limits. Chips are progressing slowly in line with Moore’s Law, and the market structure has stabilized. No matter how much you try to shake things up, it won’t have much effect. It’s better to save some investment or channel the money into other areas.
With fewer innovations, less investment, and rising prices, hasn’t the phone industry entered an era of low innovation and high profits? So now, the mobile phone industry is actually a good business, but it’s very hard for new companies to rise. The old companies have fought for so many years, defeated many competitors, and are now finally beginning to enjoy the joy of victory in peace.
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